Survival

Survival

There are few things that test the resolve like a crypto bear market. 

We remember 2021, 10k projects selling out in minutes, WAGMI, Zuckerberg's sister, celebrity BAYC "purchases", clueless influencers on CNN telling you how Bitcoin was about to hit 100k, the staking/utility/roadmap buzzword bonanza.

And what do we have to show for it? We didn't take profits, we saw the dollar bills, we held on to our bags, waiting for that call from NASA to explain how we reached the moon so damn fast. We were blinded, blinded by greed. It's something that effects most of us whether we like to admit it or not, none of us want to be the sucker that sold BAYC for 1 ETH, instead we eventually become the sucker that held the bag all the way to zero. It appears the long predicted "99% of NFTs will go to zero" scenario has finally become reality.

Bull markets are fast, 6 months to a year if you're lucky, the window of opportunity is open for a small fraction of time in the grand scheme. When the bulls disappear what are we left with? A whole lot of worthless bags and a lot of time to consider what went wrong, in this case it's almost 2 years and we're still not pumping. Enter the bear market.

Analysis of crypto cycles by Bitcoin Price


Unless you're fortunate enough to be born into enormous wealth you are likely to be in the huge pool of crypto users that are over exposed to their "investments". Yes we all sit behind our keyboards writing insightful posts like "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" but the truth is a lot of us get carried away. Myself included. This isn't necessarily a problem when the going is good, it can sometimes be wise to jump all in if the conditions allow but when shit hits the fan it gets bad really quick. Right now red numbers are everywhere, you find yourself checking your phone every 2 minutes, staring at your desktop screen for hours, desperately searching for the next shitcoin, PFP pump, ENS flip, or even giveaways if you've really hit rock bottom. Anything to find that quick profit that will keep you going for the next few days.

For me personally I am heavily invested in ENS, relatively speaking, most of my money goes into registering or buying domains. Well, I used to. These days my money seems to go towards renewals, 5 characters get the whole year, it's small money, 4 characters might get 2 months if I'm feeling lavish but my tiny collection of 3 letter domains get kicked down the road week to week. I don't have the disposable $600 to register for the year so I spend a disgusting amount on gas fees by doing it this ridiculous way. 

This is an awful way to manage a wallet of domains, as I'm sure you're aware having domains in expiry or grace means they can't receive offers or be listed. I consider this like a shop, once they hit expiry they are removed from the shelf and tucked away in the stock room out the back, never to see the light of day. To get them back on the shop floor you need to renew them. They are effectively a dead asset as soon as they hit expiry. This method also requires a lot more management, for example I was 2 minutes away from losing MOJ.eth the other day, all those weekly renewals would have been for nothing, all because I waited until the last minute to renew. This is why 3 character domains are such a gamble, you are holding until premium with no hopes of any offers, only wondering whether to renew or let it slip into premium so you can watch someone register it for 2 ETH.

ENS sales are a rare occurrence these days, the "recently sold" section shows a mix of mainly digits, some questionable floor buys and occasionally an obvious wash. I think we are too early to find end users on a regular basis so a lot of the purchasing is speculators trading amongst themselves. Which means you're only ever going to achieve trader prices. You may be confident your domain will sell for 10 ETH in a year or two but that's then, this is now and you need to adjust accordingly. 

This is where the mental struggle of investment becomes all too real, you wonder if we have really hit the bottom yet, you need the liquidity but you can't sell now, what if it starts pumping tomorrow? It's a mental battle that has already claimed some victims, I've seen people liquidating their whole wallet for a loss because of the stress or even taking mental health breaks from Twitter because they are overwhelmed. In an ideal world this should never happen but things aren't ideal, people are irrational and despite our best intentions we have all been guilty of spending more than we can afford at times. Fortunately I am not married nor do I have children so my concerns are mine alone but there will certainly be people out there with thousands of dollars worth of illiquid assets in their wallet, consuming the thoughts of the individual that goes to work every day just to struggle to pay the bills and put food on the table. I can't even begin to imagine some of the situations people are in.

Even though I am in a better position than some I would be lying if I said it doesn't affect me, a majority of my day is spent on my computer, lowering prices, moving assets around from wallet to wallet, ledger to ledger, trying to find a few extra dollars for the latest renewal. Some days it can feel helpless, knowing that you're unlikely to find a buyer even though you have lowered your prices to bargain levels in some cases. So what can you do? Realistically, nothing. You can keep lowering prices until someone eventually picks it up for next to nothing but with that comes it's own problems, what happens when the market returns and that same domain sells for 50x what you sold for. You don't want to be that guy that bought pizza with Bitcoin, forever held up as an example of stupidity.

The only way out of this is through it, economically things are unlikely to improve soon so the next best thing is to manage your mental reaction to what's going on, never forget most of us are all in the same boat, even the people flexing on Twitter. Reach out to people, share your experiences, help others or ask for advice. Community used to be a big word in NFTs but it seems that a community is only as strong as it's floor price, let's bring it back, they say the bear market is the time for building and there are few things more valuable than building a strong community.

Ultimately there is no right or wrong way to survive, everyone's situation is different. Diamond hands are a luxury in this economy, there is no shame in cashing in to help keep you going. The bull market is on the horizon but that is the horizon, it's not tomorrow, it's not next month, it's more likely to be 2024 so you have to position yourself to make it through the next 6 months at least. 

Your actions will not be ideal, you may look back and wonder why you made such stupid moves but the fact is when you're in survival mode you do not plan for the long term, even mid term is a best case scenario, your actions are intended to keep you going, to keep you in the game until the market allows you to switch tactics and go all in again.

Except this time you have learned your lesson, when pumps are all around make sure to bank the profit because you know you're only a few months away from the next bear.

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